UN struggles with itself as Middle East war fears mount

Welcome to Euractiv’s Global Europe Brief, your weekly update on the EU from a global perspective. You can subscribe to receive our newsletter here. 

Dear readers,  

we’re back after a week covering the jet set diplomacy in United Nations corridors. 

One striking observation by a number of diplomats shared in the beginning of the week was how much they felt that the global attention span to crisis is dropping. That changed later in the week, with mounting concerns of a potential Middle East war escalation.  

In today’s edition: 

• How Middle East diplomacy struggles with shortcomings of the UN system 
• A recap of what European diplomatic efforts in New York 
• A closer look at the budget battles ahead for EU defence 

Is the UN too divided to be effective? The setting for this week’s United Nations General Assembly could hardly have been more grim.  

Many observers this week in New York were adamant that the way the international body will deal with the wars in Ukraine and Gaza and the tensions Middle East will be the make-or-break of whether the institution can survive in the long term. 

“There is a profound sense of disquiet about how the organisation is headed,” Richard Gowan, UN director of the International Crisis Group, said in a briefing. 

“From February 2022 until now, we’ve had the perfect geopolitical storm that [caused] why the UN is so divided,” Gowan said. 

But while Russia’s war on Ukraine was a tough process when it comes to UN diplomacy, “the situation in Gaza has further splintered the UN through much of the last year,” Gowan said. 

The UN Security Council (UNSC), paralysed by the five veto-wielding powers US, Russia, China, France and UK, has not been successful in efforts to force a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas. 

The International Court of Justice (ICJ), the UN’s top court, and the UN-backed International Criminal Court (ICC) are struggling to enforce court cases against Israel and some of its officials. 

The UN’s main agency for humanitarian support to Palestinians (UNRWA) has struggled with allegations of its Gaza staff being linked to Hamas activity and funding cuts. 

The UN Security Council emergency session on Friday (27 September), one of the last meetings of the week, warned about the deteriorating situation in Gaza and the occupied West Bank, and highlighted the risk of a regional war due to Israel’s bombardment of Lebanon. 

But while a joint initiative brokered by the United States and France for a 21-day ceasefire to fighting in Lebanon – later joined by the European Union and several Arab states – has so far not caught on, there are some glimmers of hope. 

The proposal for a halt in fighting, which would have typically required weeks of diplomatic efforts, was put together in UN conference rooms and New York hotel suites in a matter of two days. 

US President Biden said that a full-scale war is still possible, but added “there is also a chance – we are still in the game to reach an agreement that can fundamentally change the entire region.”  

Another initiative, a new international coalition to seek a two-state solution to the Israel-Palestine conflict, co-hosted by Saudi Arabia, the EU, Norway and a series of other countries, also gained traction on Thursday (26 September) despite Israel’s absence from the talks. 

Warnings of world leaders in the chamber this week to avoid a regional escalation sounded hollow as Israeli fighter jets bombarded Hezbollah’s position across Lebanon while Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addressed the UN after rejecting the ceasefire initiative. 

“The truth is that the [UN] Security Council has systematically failed in relation to the capacity to put an end to the most dramatic conflicts that we face today: Sudan, Gaza, Ukraine,” UN Secretary-General António Guterres said in a recent interview with Al Jazeera. 

A large number of UN member states are calling for reform of the paralysed body and are asking for an increase in the number of permanent members. 

According to UN diplomats, this week’s request by Japan, India, Germany, Brazil, and two African countries to become permanent members has started gaining traction but is likely to remain a distant goal for the next years. 

UN RECAP 

TWO-STATE SOLUTION | Amid escalating tensions in the Middle East, a high-level ministerial meeting co-hosted by the EU on Thursday was expected to push for renewed peace efforts and a two-state solution for Israel and Palestine. 

A new international coalition that is to seek a two-state solution to the Israel-Palestine conflict has now gained traction despite Israel’s absence from the talks. 

IRAN PUSH | As relations between the EU and Tehran hit a historic low, European officials met with their Iranian counterparts this week on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in New York. 

UKRAINE SUPPORT | As Ukraine braces for its toughest winter since the start of Russia’s war, Kyiv’s push to garner support for its ‘victory’ and ‘peace’ plans has reached a decisive crossroads. 

Ukraine’s Western partners have also pledged to step up in providing air defences for Kyiv’s war effort, as Russia is likely to try to knock out the country’s energy infrastructure before winter. 

LAVROV SPEECH | Ukraine and its Western allies should not try “to fight to victory with a nuclear power,” Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov warned in a speech at the United Nations General Assembly on Saturday, after many delegations had already left New York. 

His remarks came after Russia’s President Vladimir Putin had proposed revisions to the country’s nuclear doctrine that would foresee Moscow responding to conventional missile strikes with nuclear weapons. 

DEFENCE BRIEFING 

BUDGET BATTLE | Experts, officials and diplomats struggle to pinpoint the cost of EU defence reform as both industry and national governments seek clarity ahead of fraught budget negotiations in the coming months. 

FUNDING PITCH | Close to 30 EU defence companies participated in defining who could access EU funds under the European Defence Programme (EDIP), excluding the French industry’s push for stricter criteria. 

SEDE FUTURE | Despite a political consensus on creating the EU Parliament’s first-ever full committee on defence, it is dubious whether the final decision will be taken before the new Commission’s confirmation hearings, with groups still haggling over package deals and competencies. 

CASH FLOW | Despite strong backing from the UN General Assembly for well-funded peace and security operations, turning words into financial support remains challenging. 

WHAT ELSE WE’RE READING 

ON OUR RADAR NEXT WEEK 

• European Parliament’s AFET Committee exchange of views with DG NEAR Koopman
  |Monday, 30 September 2024 | Brussels, Belgium 

• European Parliament’s INTA Committee discussion on proposed Ukraine Loan Cooperation Mechanism with Trade Commissioner Dombrovskis
  |Monday, 30 September 2024 | Brussels, Belgium 

• UNRWA chief Philippe Lazzarini holds press
  conference
  |Monday, 30 September 2024 | Geneva, Switzerland 

• US Secretary of State Antony Blinken convenes
  international coalition to fight Islamic State group
  |Monday, 30 September 2024 | Washington, United States 

• Rutte takes over from Stoltenberg as new NATO
  Secretary-General
  |Tuesday, 1 October 2024 | Brussels, Belgium 

• US Vice president candidates Democrat Walz, Republican
  Vance take part in election debate
  |Tuesday, 1 October 2024 | United States 

• European Commission President Von der Leyen meets UK Prime Minister Starmer
  |Wednesday, 2 October 2024 | Brussels, Belgium 

• EU’s chief diplomat Borrell participates in Foro Atlántico, visits Naval Academy of Marín
  |Thu-Fri, 4-5 October 2024 | La Toja, Spain 

PREVIOUS EDITIONS 

[Edited by Alice Taylor-Braçe]