Matt Brocklebank takes an early look at the pros and cons of four leading European challengers in line for the Breeders’ Cup Mile on November 2.
On Saturday, Chayn added the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes to his 2024 haul which already contained the Prix Jacques le Marois, Queen Anne, bet365 Mile and Doncaster Mile.
He ends the year as undisputed champion miler in Europe, having twice looked a shade unfortunate when filling the runner-up spot in both the Lockinge Stakes and the Prix du Moulin along the way.
Charyn coped admirably with quick conditions at the Royal meeting during the height of summer and had to roll his sleeves up and do it the hard way on relatively deep ground over the weekend, but it takes a different type of performance altogether to prevail in the Breeders’ Cup Mile and Roger Varian’s grey won’t be in attendance at Del Mar on November 2.
Nor will Rosallion – the Irish 2,000 Guineas and St James’s Palace winner who will be kept back for next year – while the QEII also-rans seem highly unlikely to be among Monday’s pre-entries for the $2,000,000 contest backed by FanDuel.
What we are still expecting, however, is a typically strong raiding team from this part of the world and here we look at the pros and cons of the ‘big four’ Europeans.
Sky Bet odds: Notable Speech 3/1, Porta Fortuna 7/2, Ramatuelle 4/1, Diego Velazquez 8/1, 12/1 bar.
NOTABLE SPEECH (Charlie Appleby)
PROS: Trainer and jockey have won the BC Mile for the past three seasons, including with Classic colts, so putting his obvious class to one side for a second, the Godolphin operation clearly know what’s required to get one to peak for this major back-end meeting (the owners had the one-two with Master Of The Seas edging out Mawj 12 months ago). This son of Dubawi should get his preferred (quick) conditions at Del Mar, where the tight turns are likely to play to his strengths too given his potent turn of foot when on song.
CONS: The three previous Appleby-trained winners – namely Master Of The Seas, Modern Games and Space Blues – had all won overseas before claiming BC glory, whereas Notable Speech’s sole ‘away day’ so far produced a tepid fifth of seven in the Prix du Moulin at Longchamp. He does also need to bounce straight back from that below-par effort and although he has shown such traits when winning the Sussex Stakes after a low-ley effort in the St James’s Palace in June, the Goodwood race this year wasn’t as strong as we’ve come to expect.
PORTA FORTUNA (Donnacha O’Brien)
PROS: Group 1 winner at two and three, having completed a fine hat-trick in the Coronation Stakes, Falmouth and Matron at Leopardstown last time out. She has a wonderful blend of speed and stamina, acts particularly well on quick ground and is still relatively fresh for the time of year having been given a break after mid-July before resuming at the Irish Champions Festival last month. She also has Breeders’ Cup experience, having been second in the Juvenile Fillies Turf last year, so travelling across the Atlantic obviously doesn’t pose any problems.
CONS: Has done the vast majority of her racing on ‘galloping’ tracks and looked very well suited to the stiff finish at Ascot when landing the Coronation. She’ll have to cover eight furlongs much quicker than ever if she’s to notch another top-level success before the year’s out (last year’s winning time of 1:32.45 is a fraction over 8 seconds faster than her Matron triumph; likewise the Coronation).
RAMATUELLE (Christopher Head)
PROS: France has a rich history in this Breeders’ Cup Mile, from Freddy Head riding Miesque to victory in the late-80s through to the same man training great mare Goldikova to three straight wins from 2008-2010. No French runner has claimed top spot since Karakontie at Santa Anita 10 years ago but the US-bred Ramatuelle was a shade unlucky in the 1000 Guineas, found Ascot a bit too stiff when third to Porta Fortuna in the Coronation, and then advertised her well-being with a stunning Prix de la Foret success last time. She looks positively made for this sort of test around a sharp two turns and is arguably the one who is over-priced at a general 4/1.
CONS: She’s 0-2 over the mile distance, while her best Group 1 form to date has some on very soft ground which is unlikely to be the case in Southern California.
DIEGO VELAZQUEZ (Aidan O’Brien)
PROS: Connections appear to have found his optimum trip again having been tempted into a (French) Classic campaign over longer distances earlier in the year. Seems to be at home with the ground riding on top and likely to be at a tactical advantage around a sharp, turning track given he’s raced prominently when back to winning ways at Leopardstown the last twice.
CONS: Only competed in two Group 1 races and he’s finished sixth (last year’s Futurity Trophy) and 10th (this season’s King Edward VII. There may have been mitigating circumstances for both heavy defeats but he lacks the raw ability to match some of these rivals and could be a sitting duck late on when the relatively speedy horses pounce in the short Del Mar straight.
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