Breeders’ Cup Classic 2024: Early odds and analysis

The $7 million 2024 Breeders’ Cup Classic drew a pre-entered field of 14 led by 3-year-old Fierceness and Europe-based City Of Troy. In the last 10 years, the Classic was won by four 3-year-olds, Authentic, Arrogate, American Pharoah and Bayern, and all of them were trained by Bob Baffert. In Breeders’ Cup history, 13 sophomores were victorious in the featured race.

The Classic is one of the original Breeders’ Cup races from 1984, and 12 favorites took the 1 1/4-mile test since. The winner went on to be named the horse of the year 18 times. The Breeders’ Cup is being held for the third time at Del Mar, where in the past Gun Runner and Knicks Go won the Classic.

To help make a wagering plan, here is an early full analysis for the pre-entered field of the Breeders’ Cup Classic. The morning-line odds from the Horse Racing Nation staff are tentative awaiting the final entries, jockey assignments and post-position draw, which will be announced Monday.

The Classic will be run as race 8 on Nov. 2 with post time scheduled for 5:41 p.m. EDT. The field is in alphabetical order with jockeys listed from their most recent race.

Arthur’s Ride, 12-1. Tapit – Bill Mott / Junior Alvarado – 8: 4-2-0 – $804,955. Arthur’s Ride earned an automatic spot in the Classic with his victory in the Grade 1 Whitney in August at Saratoga when he led every step of the way in a field of 10. All four of his victories were on the front end, including a 10-furlong allowance during the June Saratoga meeting. In the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1), Arthur’s Ride got to the lead as usual but faded badly to finish fifth. Drosselmeyer in 2011 and Cigar in 1995 were Bill Mott’s previous Classic winners. Probable pacesetter.

City Of Troy, 3-1. Justify – Aidan O’Brien / Ryan Moore – 7: 6-0-0 – $3,043,854. City of Troy will be trainer Aidan O’Brien’s 18th starter in the Classic. City Of Troy has won 6 of 7 starts with the last five in Group 1 races on the turf. He won his three most recent starts in Great Britain, including the Aug. 21 Juddmonte International (G1) at York, which was a Breeders’ Cup challenge series race. One of the betting favorites.

Derma Sotogake, 20-1. Mind Your Biscuits – Hidetaka Otonashi / Christophe Lemaire – 13: 4-1-2 – $3,434,599. Derma Sotogake was second in the Classic last year at 26-1 behind White Abarrio. He is winless in three starts in 2024, finishing fifth in the Saudi Cup (G1), sixth in the Dubai World Cup (G1) and fifth in the Nippon TV Hai in Japan. The last victory for the now 4-year-old was 20 months ago in the UAE Derby (G2), which led him to a sixth-place finish in the 2023 Kentucky Derby. Toss.

Fierceness, 7-2. City of Light – Todd Pletcher / John Velazquez – 8: 5-0-1 – $2,666,350. Fierceness has thrived since moving to Saratoga. He won two races in a row for the first time in his career in the Jim Dandy (G2) and the Travers (G1). In the Travers, where he became a Grade 1 winner for the third time, he used a stalking trip to take control of the race and then held off the challenge of Thorpedo Anna. Fierceness won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile last year at Santa Anita on the way to becoming the 2-year-old champion. Top choice.

Forever Young, 4-1. Real Steel – Yoshito Yahagi / Ryusei Sakai – 7: 6-0-1 – $2,984,668. Forever Young won his first three races in Japan last year as a 2-year-old and came back to win the Saudi Derby (G3) and the UAE Derby. In the Kentucky Derby he broke slowly and rallied from far back to finish third, a head behind the winner. He was given five months off and came back a month ago to win the Japan Dirt Classic in preparation for the Breeders’ Cup. Win contender.

Highland Falls, 20-1. Curlin – Brad Cox / Flavien Prat – 9: 5-2-1 – $1,192,060. Highland Falls won the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) to earn an automatic spot in the Classic. He pressed the pace in the 10-furlong race at Saratoga and drew off to beat the field of seven by four lengths. Brad Cox won the Classic in 2021 with Knicks Go. Toss.

Mixto, 30-1. Good Magic – Doug O’Neill / Kyle Frey – 14: 2-2-4 – $782,180. Mixto won for the second time in his career and became a stakes winner in the Pacific Classic (G1) at Del Mar with odds of 22-1, earning an automatic spot in the Breeders’ Cup. He had a few top-three finishes in graded stakes in California this year. Toss.

Newgate, 15-1. Into Mischief – Bob Baffert / John Velazquez – 11: 3-4-1 – $655,775. Newgate won the Santa Anita Handicap (G1) going the 10-furlong distance in March after a pair of second-place finishes to start his 2024 campaign. After running ninth in the Dubai World Cup, he was off for six months. Newgate came back in the California Crown (G1) at Santa Anita and was third as part of the blanket finish of the top three at the wire. Baffert is the leading trainer of Classic winners with four, including three in a row from 2014 to 2016 with Bayern, American Pharoah and Arrogate, and Authentic won most recently in 2020. Use underneath.

Next, 12-1. Not This Time – Doug Cowans / Luis Machado – 23: 13-0-1 – $1,336,361. Next would return to the Breeders’ Cup for the first time since he was a 2-year-old, He has won his seven most recent starts and 9 of his last 10 since moving to distances of 1 1/2 miles or longer. Six of those victories were by double-digit margins. The Classic would be his second start in a Grade 1, and the 1 1/4-mile distance would be his shortest since 2022. Next is an alternate for the Breeders’ Cup Turf. He would face a much faster pace in the Classic than he faced in any of his recent victories. Toss.

Señor Buscador, 20-1. Mineshaft – Todd Fincher / Joe Talamo – 21: 7-2-3 – $12,731,427. Señor Buscador began the year with a neck loss in the Pegasus World Cup (G1) and then travelled to the Middle East and won the huge purse in the Saudi Cup followed by a third in the Dubai World Cup. After a five-month layoff, he was fourth in the Pat O’Brien (G2) and fifth in the California Crown in September. He will need to find the form that he had earlier in the year if he has any chance to contend against this field. Toss.

Sierra Leone, 10-1. Gun Runner – Chad Brown / Flavien Prat – 8: 3-3-2 – $2,368,000. Sierra Leone won 3 of the first 4 starts in his career, which included his debut maiden, the Risen Star (G2) and the Blue Grass (G1) in April. In his next four starts, he did not win again although he did finish second twice and third twice in the best graded stakes for 3-year-olds, the Kentucky Derby, Belmont Stakes, Travers and Jim Dandy. In the Classic, he will face older horses for the first time. Use underneath.

Skippylongstocking, 20-1. Exaggerator – Saffie Joseph Jr. / Manny Franco – 27: 9-3-5 – $3,072,985. Skippylongstocking was third last year in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile behind Cody’s Wish and National Treasure. The 5-year-old was pulled up and walked off in the Pegasus World Cup to start 2024. He did not miss any racing time and came back in about six weeks to win the Challenger (G3) at Tampa Bay Downs. Skippy won a pair of Grade 2 stakes, was third in the Stephen Foster (G1) and fifth in the Whitney (G1) after pressing the pace. Use underneath.

Tapit Trice, 20-1. Tapit – Todd Pletcher / Dylan Davis – 12: 6-0-3 – $1,733,650. Tapit Trice won the first three starts of his career last year, including the Blue Grass. That led to four Grade 1 starts with third-place finishes in the Belmont Stakes and the Travers. As a 4-year-old, Tapit Trice returned to his winning ways with off-the-pace runs in the Monmouth Cup (G3) and the Woodward (G2). Live long shot.

Ushba Tesoro, 15-1. Orfevre – Noboru Takagi / Yuga Kawada – 35: 11-4-5 – $16,414,520. Ushba Tesoro is the leading money earner in the Classic, mostly from a 2023 victory in the Dubai World Cup and second-place finishes this year in that race again and the Saudi Cup. Last year as a 6-year-old, he was fifth in the Breeders’ Cup Classic as the 7-2 third choice. He returned from a six-month layoff to finish second in a handicap in Japan, which was the same race he used to prep for last year’s Classic. Use underneath.

Entered but not selected: Pyrenees, Rattle N Roll

Summary: Aidan O’Brien considers City Of Troy one of his best horses ever, and he will need to be since the Irish trainer has tried to win the Classic 18 times without any luck. Only two Europe-based horses have won the race. As the probable favorite, City Of Troy is not a good bet to win.

That makes the 3-year-olds Fierceness and Forever Young the most likely winners. Fierceness is at the top of his game right now, and he shipped to California last year to win the Juvenile. Fierceness is the top choice, and in this 14-horse field an exacta box with Forever Young should have value.