Breeders’ Cup: Matt Chapman delivers his verdict on the European raiders at Del Mar

Matt Chapman believes this is a Breeders’ Cup with familiar names but the whole focus on one individual – City Of Troy, live on Sky Sports Racing on Friday.

Del Mar 2024. This is a Breeders’ Cup with a difference. Because while, as always, there are a plethora of familiar names challenging – like star juvenile Lake Victoria and class sprinters Bradsell, Big Evs and Believing – that we have all grown to love on the Flat this year, in many ways this week’s Stateside fireworks are about one horse: City Of Troy.

Already a turf champion, with Group 1 victories in the Dewhurst, Derby, Coral Eclipse and Juddmonte International, City Of Troy now must show he can do on dirt what his Triple Crown-hero sire Justify did. And that, my friends, is be unstoppable.

How lucky we are that Coolmore are taking up the challenge in the Breeders’ Cup Classic. If England football fans have faced years of hurt since that famous World Cup success in 1966, then Coolmore and their trainer Aidan O’Brien have had to endure equal pain in their over-20-year quest for Classic success.

To win a Classic is the Holy Grail for Coolmore. And boy, ‘The Lads’ Magnier, Smith and Tabor have tried. Just take a look at this list:

• 2000 Churchill Downs – Giant’s Causeway 2nd
• 2001 Belmont Park – Galileo 6th, Black Minnaloushe 10th
• 2002 Arlington – Hawk Wing 7th
• 2003 Santa Anita – Hold That Tiger 5th
• 2005 Belmont Park – Oratorio 11th
• 2006 Churchill Downs – George Washington 6th
• 2007 Monmouth – George Washington PU
• 2008 Santa Anita – Henrythenavigator 2nd, Duke Of Marmalade 9th
• 2009 Santa Anita – Rip Van Winkle 10th
• 2011 Churchill Downs – So You Think 6th
• 2013 Santa Anita – Declaration Of War 3rd
• 2015 Keeneland – Gleneagles 8th
• 2017 Del Mar – Churchill 7th
• 2018 Churchill Downs – Mendelssohn 5th

In City Of Troy, they look to have a horse bred to crack the Classic conundrum. Go, go, go, Aidan! We are all behind you.

As I mentioned, however, there are many European horses to savour at Del Mar on Friday and Saturday. And remember, you can watch every race live on Sky Sports Racing, while I’ll be bringing you all the latest news on the At The Races’ social media feeds. Yeeehaaa!

FRIDAY

21.45 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint (5f)

AESTERIUS (2) (Archie Watson)

Held in high regard. Won four of his six starts and battled on strongly to deny the re-opposing Big Mojo in the Group 2 Flying Childers at Doncaster last time, having previously chased home that rival in the Group 3 Molecomb at Goodwood.

Go back to Royal Ascot and he was behind Shareholder in the Norfolk Stakes, and there wasn’t much between them in the betting.

Shows plenty of early pace and is in the right stall in 2 to use that, but he must, of course, break well.

BIG MOJO (3) (Mick Appleby)

Had less racing than old rival Aesterius, who he chased home at a narrow margin in the Group 2 Flying Childers at Doncaster last time, having hung a little left that day.

Had beaten Aesterius in the Group 3 Molecomb at Goodwood and clearly there isn’t much between them. Travels well and likes to get out quickly, so needs to break well to make use of stall 3.

MAGNUM FORCE (4) (Ger Lyons)

Speedy son of Mehmas. Finished second in the Roses Stakes at York and then third to Aesterius when favourite for the Group 2 Flying Childers at Doncaster.

The faster ground here will help and he’s another who can make a show given a clear run. Stall 4 is fine.

ARIZONA BLAZE (5) (Adrian Murray)

Been on the go since March and run eight times for two wins. Finishing third to Babouche in the Group 1 Phoenix Stakes is useful form, and he was also third to Shareholder in the Group 2 Norfolk Stakes at Royal Ascot.

Latest effort at Dundalk wasn’t a disgrace either, and he once defeated Camille Pissarro at the Curragh. A good run can be expected for each-way players after a perfect draw in stall 5.

WHISTLEJACKET (7) (Aidan O’Brien)

By No Nay Never, who was once runner-up in this event. Been busy with seven races in classy company, landing the Group 1 Prix Morny at Deauville ahead of the Coventry winner Rashabar.

Also finished second in the Group 1 Phoenix Stakes and chased home Shadow Of Light in the Group 1 Middle Park at Newmarket.

Finished fourth over this trip to Shareholder in the Norfolk at Royal Ascot and is going to be in the mix here from stall 7.

SHAREHOLDER (9) (Karl Burke)

Lightly-raced Norfolk Stakes winner who wasn’t seen for two months after Royal Ascot only to then finish tailed-off behind Whistlejacket in the Group 1 Prix Morny.

Obviously much better than that but it’s hard to know what to expect on the back of that flop. Might have wanted a lower draw too.

IDES OF MARCH (12) (Aidan O’Brien)

Beaten on first two starts but has since come good with two wins at the Curragh, including the Group 3 Round Tower, which he won in style. That wasn’t the strongest renewal and he was 2-5 favourite, but a third to The Lion In Winter earlier in the season suggests he shouldn’t be ignored in any way.

Stall 12 does, however, make this task a tough one.

23.05 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (1m)

LAKE VICTORIA (1) (Aidan O’Brien)

Outstanding juvenile filly in Europe, banging in the Group 1 Cheveley Park by daylight, from Daylight, and the Moyglare at the Curragh over 7f by just over a length from Simmering.

Should have no issue with the trip here and is a leading contender for next year’s 1000 Guineas.

Unbeaten in four races, stall 1 is fine as long as she breaks well. Otherwise, she might need some luck.

HEAVENS GATE (8) (Aidan O’Brien)

Masses of experience, which should help, and set to run for the eighth time this season. Has been holding her form well and was a fine Group 3 winner at the Curragh when last seen, though she was behind the re-opposing Celandine in the Lowther Stakes at York.

Needs the mile to bring out more, while stall 8 shouldn’t be a major issue.

FIERY LUCY (11) (Gavin Cromwell)

Very consistent filly, though she has been beaten twice recently, most lately by Heavens Gate at the Curragh in a Group 3, having been beaten by the same rival at Naas in early August.

In between those two runs she was denied by Dreamy at the Curragh as well. Only one win to her name in a Fairyhouse maiden and unlikely to make it two in this company. Draw also isn’t great in stall 11.

ANSHODA (14) (Dave Loughnane)

Tough little filly who won the Group 3 Prestige at Glorious Goodwood, but she was then well beaten by Desert Flower in the May Hill at Doncaster.

Might enjoy the quick ground but this will be hard, and maybe even impossible, from stall 14.

23.45 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (1m ½f)

HILL ROAD (3) (Adrian Murray)

Goes on dirt for the first time here. Looked decent in a Leopardstown maiden but then finished well down the field in the Group 1 National Stakes at the Curragh.

Bred for the dirt and by multiple Grade 1 hero Quality Road, but this is a massive test. At least the draw is good in stall 3!

00.25 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (1m)

AL QUDRA (4) (Charlie Appleby)

Went off favourite for the Grade 1 Summer Stakes at Woodbine last time but was well and truly put in his place by the re-opposing New Century.

Was slightly hampered that day and would have been closer but for that incident, but no obvious reason why the form will be reversed here.

Had beaten New Century on his previous start at Ascot, however, so it might be he’s better than we saw that day, while stall 4 looks perfect.

SEAGULLS ELEVEN (7) (Hugo Palmer)

Just one win from five starts and that came in a novice at Haydock. A second in the Group 2 Superlative Stakes at Newmarket behind Ancient Truth was fair enough, and he was third to Scorthy Champ in the National Stakes before beating just one home in the Group 1 Dewhurst behind Shadow Of Light.

Not certain to enjoy this longer trip but stall 7 is fine.

THE WACO KID (9) (Hugo Palmer)

Hugo Palmer has sent out five Breeders’ Cup starters but is yet to record a finish better than sixth – Hierarchy finished sixth in the 2021 Juvenile Turf Sprint (Grade 2 at the time) and Ocean Road was also sixth in the 2021 Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf (Grade 1).

This horse has been mixing it well in Group 3/Listed class and landed the Tattersalls Stakes at Newmarket last time from Diego Ventura.

Made all that day but that will be much harder to do here, and he’ll have to work a way clear from stall 9.

NEW CENTURY (11) (Andrew Balding)

Looked a monster when beating Al Qudra in the Grade 1 Summer Stakes at Woodbine last time, having chased home that same rival on his previous start at Ascot. Improving fast and looked well suited by the mile.

His fifth at Royal Ascot behind Rashabar in the Coventry suggested he had talent and he looks to be getting his act together.

Andrew Balding wanted a stall between 4 and 8 and he got 11, which makes things a bit harder.

AOMORI CITY (12) (Charlie Appleby)

Lightly raced, with just the four runs to his name. Looked a fine beast in the Group 2 Vintage Stakes at Glorious Goodwood but was firmly put in his place by Scorthy Champ in the Group 1 National Stakes at the Curragh.

Also looked in need of further that day but this is a tight mile, while his draw is far from ideal in stall 12.

HENRI MATISSE (13) (Aidan O’Brien)

Looked a machine in three early wins at the Curragh, denying subsequent Futurity Trophy winner Hotazhell in a Group 2 in August.

Since then his attitude has become a mess, and he looked a tricky ride in both the National Stakes and Jean-Luc Lagardere.

He could bounce back here, but it’s hard to trust him and stall 13 looks very tricky as well.

SATURDAY

19.00 Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (7f)

FROST AT DAWN (1) (William Knight)

Stayed on well to finish fifth behind Future Is Now in a Grade 2 at Keeneland last time and will be stepping up a furlong and a half here, which based on that effort will suit.

That said, she still has plenty to find even if the return to this kind of distance does her well, as it did in Meydan earlier in the year.

PANDORA’S GIFT (5) (Stuart Williams)

Finished third at Keeneland in a Grade 2 behind Future Is Now, the same contest that Frost At Dawn was fifth in. Kept on well enough then but is yet to race this far and should be outclassed in this field.

Still, it’s good to have Stuart Williams here though!

19.41 Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint (5f)

BELIEVING (1) (George Boughey)

Has been chasing home horses for fun this season, including the re-opposing Bradsell in both the Group 1 Nunthorpe and Flying Five Stakes before finishing third behind the same rival in the Prix de l’Abbaye, having also finished third to Big Evs in the King George at Goodwood.

Headgear might help but she will need there to be a pace war up front here, which is possible, and if that happens she could well come flying through late under Ryan Moore.

That all said, it’s going to be hard to get a clear run from stall 1.

STARLUST (4) (Ralph Beckett)

Firstly, the stable is red-hot. A five-time winner who has to do more to win this but has shown glimmers of real talent of late.

Finished a fine second to Star Of Mystery at Meydan in January and recently finished third behind Bradsell and Believing in the Nunthorpe.

He was mullered on the rail when last seen at ParisLongchamp in the Prix de l’Abbaye, but for which he might have been in the first four. Not out of it and has a decent draw in stall 4.

STAR OF MYSTERY (6) (Charlie Appleby)

This filly is interesting for me. Finished a fine third to Cogburn in the Grade 1 Jaipur at Saratoga in June before going on to score in Grade 3 company at the same track the following month.

She was given a crazy amount to do when second at Keeneland last time, but that suggested she could be coming home fast and late in a race like this.

Has already beaten the re-opposing Starlust at Meydan in January and has a perfect box in stall 6.

BIG EVS (11) (Mick Appleby)

Ignore his Group 1 Nunthorpe flop and he’s bang in the mix. Landed the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint at Santa Anita last year and finished a fine third to Asfoora at Royal Ascot before beating that mare in the King George at Goodwood.

There’s been no explanation for his Nunthorpe performance, however, while stall 11 will make it tough, for all there is some pace out wide from Cogburn (stall 9).

BRADSELL (12) (Archie Watson)

Top-class sprinter who is back to his best this season. Group 1 success has come via the Nunthorpe at York – in which Believing was second, Starlust third and Big Evs a tamer eighth – and the Flying Five at the Curragh, where he defeated the re-opposing Believing once again.

Went down by just over a length in the Prix de l’Abbaye last time, where the deep ground certainly wasn’t ideal. Every chance here, although stall 12 is a massive hindrance.

21.01 Breeders’ Cup Turf (1m 4f)

EMILY UPJOHN (2) (John & Thady Gosden)

Classy mare who last won a race in June 2023, when beating Westover in the Coronation Cup at Epsom.

Officially she’s about 5lb below her best at present but she’s been going well under Kieran Shoemark this term, who gave her a peach to nearly beat Arc heroine Bluestocking in the Pretty Polly Stakes in Ireland, and again when third behind the subsequent Arc 1-2 in the Prix Vermeille.

Stays well and Frankie Dettori – who won on her at Epsom – is back on board. Conditions look ideal, so she really should run a big race.

I’m just not sure about her on a tight track, though stall 2 looks fair enough.

LUXEMBOURG (4) (Aidan O’Brien)

A seven-time winner from 18 starts and landed the Group 1 Coronation Cup at Epsom in June.

Only just beaten by Romantic Warrior in Hong King and was once only beaten half a length by Auguste Rodin in the 2023 Irish Champion Stakes. Only sixth in that same race behind Economics when last seen seven weeks ago, though he was beaten less than three lengths and remains in good shape.

If he won this it wouldn’t surprise anyone, with stall 4 looking ideal, but there’s always a chance something will outstay him.

JAYAREBE (5) (Brian Meehan)

A real improver and trained by a man who won this with Red Rocks and Dangerous Midge. I’d suggest this horse is better than both of those and he was dominant in the Group 2 Prix Dollar at ParisLongchamp last time, having chased home Economics at Deauville prior to that.

Stamina should be fine here but there may just be a question as to how he will handle the track, as he’s going to need to find a bit of early zip.

Has won four from seven starts and the stable had a couple of winners last week, so he’s not to be ignored, with stall 5 also looking perfect.

WINGSPAN (10) (Aidan O’Brien)

Only had six races to date and improving all the time. This Dubawi offspring ran the race of her life last time when chasing home Kalpana in the British Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes at Ascot and she also has form on fast ground.

Could easily be in the mix here, although stall 10 is far from ideal and she’s been ditched by Ryan Moore.

REBEL’S ROMANCE (11) (Charlie Appleby)

Won this race in 2022 at Keeneland when defeating Stone Age and has turned into a globetrotting star, with recent victories at Cologne, Sha Tin, Meydan, Doha and Kempton! Goes on any ground and stays well, so he has every chance of getting the Turf double-up.

A credit to connections with 14 wins from 21 starts, and most would be shocked if he’s not in the first three at the very least, even though he has a nasty high draw.

21.41 Breeders’ Cup Classic (1m 2f)

CITY OF TROY (3) (Aidan O’Brien)

What can you say? Brilliant as a juvenile in the Group 1 Dewhurst, City Of Troy blew out big time in the 2000 Guineas but has since strutted his stuff to success in the Derby, Eclipse and Juddmonte International.

However, those were all on turf, and now he has to beat the best in the world on dirt. He’s bred to act on the surface via his sire Justify, but will he win? I have no idea…only time will tell.

But it’s great to have him here. O’Brien says he’s the best he has trained. Provided he doesn’t miss the break, stall 3 isn’t an issue.

22.25 Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf (1m 3f)

BEAUTIFUL LOVE (1) (Charlie Appleby)

Has won three of her nine starts and landed a Grade 3 at Belmont a couple of runs ago. However, there is nothing in her form that suggests she will be up to this test, unless she improves massively.

Her main advantage looks to be Stateside experience.

CINDERELLA’S DREAM (3) (Charlie Appleby)

The winner of six of her seven starts and not beaten all that far when seventh in the 1000 Guineas back in May. Since then she has been Stateside, banging in a Grade 1 in the Belmont Oaks and a Grade 2 at Saratoga when long odds-on.

Has stamina to prove but it wouldn’t surprise anyone if she went close under William Buick, although she probably has to improve again. Stall 3 looks fine.

CONTENT (7) (Aidan O’Brien)

Went very close to beating You Got To Me in the Group 1 Irish Oaks over 1m4f and followed up that effort with a fine victory in the Yorkshire Oaks, defeating that same rival as well as Emily Upjohn.

However, since then the wheels have come off, running poorly with a hood on in the Prix de l’Opera and then desperately behind Kalpana at Ascot two weeks back.

Needs to bounce back and stall 7 looks fine, but ditched by Ryan Moore.

SOPRANO (12) (George Boughey)

Very consistent filly but I simply can’t see her getting this trip. Her third in the Matron over a mile was decent, but she didn’t run on strongly at Keeneland over a furlong further last time and was well beaten into second.

I just can’t see how she wins this, surely dropped out from a nasty draw in stall 12.

23.45 Breeders’ Cup Mile (1m)

RAMATUELLE (1) (Christopher Head)

French horses have the right attributes for the Breeders’ Cup and here’s another who will have plenty of support after her blistering success in the Group 1 Prix de la Foret, where she beat the admirable Kinross.

This tight mile should be within her stamina range – had the 1000 Guineas in the bag only to fold late on – and it will be fascinating to see who tries to pounce on who between herself and Notable Speech.

Every chance her speed will be crucial here but she might struggle for a clear run from stall 1.

DIEGO VELAZQUEZ (4) (Aidan O’Brien)

A decent son of Frankel and having been thrashed by Calandagan in the King Edward VII Stakes at Royal Ascot, he’s since come of age dropped in trip, with romps in a Group 3 and Group 2 at Leopardstown.

Has to do it at this level now, but he’s another it would be folly to ignore and is sure to be staying on, with stall 4 looking the perfect berth.

NOTABLE SPEECH (6) (Charlie Appleby)

A Classic winner, having landed the 2000 Guineas back in May with a blistering turn of foot to dispose of the top-class Rosallion. That’s the best form in the race and while he flopped in the St James’ Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot, he was back in the groove when defeating Maljoom in the Sussex.

Subsequently stuffed in the Moulin when last seen but it’s easy to forgive that performance as it came on soft ground. Everything suggests this is ideal for him and Charlie Appleby has a tremendous record in the race, with stall 6 further swinging the pendulum in his favour.

PORTA FORTUNA (7) (Donnacha O’Brien)

Sure to have her supporters as she’s terrifically consistent and hasn’t been out of the first two in her last six starts.

Victories in Group 1 company have included the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot, Falmouth at Newmarket and Matron at Leopardstown, while she also finished second in the 1000 Guineas and in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies’ Turf.

Probably has 5lb to find with Notable Speech but gets 3lb from him here, so impossible to discount. A super tough filly and stall 7 shouldn’t be an issue.

Watch the Breeders’ Cup on Friday, live on Sky Sports Racing from 8pm. Stream with NOW.