What does Trump’s win mean for Europe?

Despite attempts by European leaders to sound diplomatic, even breezy, in their congratulations for Donald Trump, they know his return to the White House could have huge repercussions for the war in Ukraine, European defence and world trade.

The public warm words and private nervousness of most European leaders was summed up by French President Emmanual Macron who posted his congratulations to Donald Trump on X, writing in English: “Ready to work together as we did for four years. With your convictions and mine. With respect and ambition. For more peace and prosperity.”

But just seven minutes later President Macron added, this time in French, in an entirely different tone: “We will work towards a more united, stronger, more sovereign Europe in this new context.”

It was an attempt to sound bullish to Macron’s home audience because the signals from Donald Trump are deeply worrying for Europe.

During the campaign Trump promised that he would impose a 60 percent tariff on Chinese goods and a 10-20 percent tariff on goods from all other countries, including Europe.

The US is the European Union’s largest market for goods after China. US-EU trade was estimated at $1.3 trillion in 2022. Tariffs would make European goods more expensive to sell in the US. And if the EU retaliated, prices would rise for European consumers too.

During his first term, President Trump imposed a 25 percent tariff on EU steel and 10 percent on EU aluminium. The EU responded with tariffs on Harley Davidson motorbikes and bourbon whiskey amongst other iconic US products. The tariffs were suspended (although not abolished) by President Biden last year.

Ahead of his inauguration in January, trade experts predict there will be a rush by European firms to lobby Trump for exemptions to any new tariffs.

“We have to put our country first for at least a period of time, we have to fix it, because together, we can truly make America great again”, said Trump in his victory speech this morning.

No wonder shares on Asian markets and for German cars were down this morning.

One estimate by the UK think tank, the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, warns Trump’s tariffs could shave Britain’s growth by up to two-thirds next year, if he presses ahead.

His pledge this morning that “I will govern by a simple motto, promises made, promises kept”, has increased fears.

Ahead of the result, a senior EU official briefed that the US winner would be told that Europe is less dependent, more sovereign but still an open economy.

But it is not just economics that is worrying European leaders. Another huge area of concern for Europe is what Donald Trump will do over Ukraine.

“I appreciate President Trump’s commitment to the ‘peace through strength’ approach in global affairs. This is exactly the principle that can practically bring just peace in Ukraine closer,” said President Zelenskyy in his congratulatory message to Trump.

The Ukrainian president has continually insisted that Trump is on his side, even after Zelenskyy angered Republicans by attending a Biden photocall in the swing state of Pennsylvania.

The Kiel Institute last month warned that aid for Ukraine – both militarily and financially – would be halved if US support falls away.

At a Nato summit in Washington back in July, allies agreed to maintain military support for Ukraine at the current rate of around €40 billion per year. But diplomats quietly admit that it is not a cast iron guarantee and continuing at that rate would (only) be morally binding on the new US president.

Europeans are also largely sceptical about Donald Trump’s claims that he could quickly bring the war in Ukraine to an end, at least on terms that the Ukrainian government would be prepared to accept.

Nato has tried to offset broader complaints by Trump of an over-reliance on the US by pointing to increasing levels of defence spending by European nations. But in reality American money, and boots on the ground in Europe, remain essential to the alliance.

Whilst most European leaders have so far kept their remarks upbeat, the German Foreign Minister has been more frank in her reaction to Trump’s victory, admitting that Europe needs “to take over more security responsibility than ever”.

More than 40 European leaders are due to meet in Budapest on Thursday for a meeting of the European Political Community. Undoubtedly Trump’s names will be on everybody’s lips.

There are also rumours swirling that Trump fan and host, Hungarian Prime Minister, Viktor Orbán, will allow a “special guest” to dial into the meeting.

“The biggest comeback in US political history! Congratulations to President Trump on his enormous win. A much needed victory for the World!”, Orbán wrote on X.

EU heads of state and government have already scheduled to stay on in Hungary into Friday. EU leaders will, I’m told, discuss their ‘common position’ on the US election over dinner tomorrow night.