Breeders’ Cup 2024: 3 vulnerable favorites on Saturday

Photo:

Tim Sudduth / Eclipse Sportswire

There is no such thing as a sure thing in horse racing, and this is especially true in the Breeders’ Cup with many of the world’s best horses and full fields lined up.

Thorpedo Anna, Cogburn and Lake Victoria will be the three shortest-priced runners in the Breeders’ Cup and although they might be tough to beat, there will be plenty of other opportunities to beat the chalk. The Breeders’ Cup is the best two days of betting in the sport because there are always at least a couple of races that produce chaos. 

Below I analyze three races on Saturday in which the morning-line favorite looks vulnerable, opening the door for nice price opportunities.

Race 10: Breeders’ Cup Sprint, Federal Judge, no. 3 , 3-1

This gelding is very talented and this is more of a knock on the situation than it is the horse. Federal Judge is a rocket early, but he will have an abundance of company on the front end. Raging Torrent will be forced to gun to the lead after drawing the rail. Straight No Chaser, Skelly, Mullikin and Bentornato also will be looking to make the lead from outside of this gelding.

These are quality speed horses that he will contend with, and the clear lead that he has grown accustomed to will not be available Saturday. This gelding had not won a stakes race prior to the Grade 2 Phoenix, which came on a speed-biased track, so it is hard to bet him against far more accomplished runners when the flow of the race is working against him. Jockey Flavien Prat also jumps off to take the mount aboard Mullikin. 

Race 9: Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf, War Like Goddess, no. 4, 5-2

It is tough to bet against one of the coolest horses in training, but betting with the heart does not pay the bills. This will be the fourth year in a row that this 7-year-old warrior has competed in the Breeders’ Cup, and she is back to competing against the girls after challenging the boys the past two years. As expected, she continues to lose a small step every year. She entered the 2021 Breeders’ Cup winning four in a row. In 2022, she won 3 of 4 prior to the Breeders’ Cup. The mare captured 2 of her 4 races in 2023 and has won only 1 of 4 in 2024.

This is not the strongest renewal of this race, but there are still a handful of intriguing options led by Cinderella’s Dream, Content and Moira. War Like Goddess is likely to run a good race, but do not be surprised if she finishes a bit short of winning.

Race 12: Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile, Domestic Product, no. 9, 7-2

Chad Brown’s colt has developed nicely this summer, winning his last two efforts since returning to one-turn races. He had won only one of his previous five races around two turns prior to that, and he will have to prove he is effective going two turns on Saturday. He also will face against older foes for the first time. Those are big obstacles for a horse who likely will go off as the favorite.

The positive is that there is a ton of speed lined up in this race, which should help his closing style. He will be coming late, but I prefer Post Time, who has the same late-running style without the questions surrounding him. At 12-1 on the morning line, Post Time is a much better value in my opinion than Domestic Product in this race.