Elon Musk has been predicting a ‘civil war’ in Europe for nearly a year

In November, Musk continued his prophecy of a civil war but pivoted his rationale. In response to an article about Germany rearming its military after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, he wrote, “Civil war is brewing.” Then, several days later, he returned to the subject of immigration and posted, “Europe appears to be headed for civil war.” A civil war, though, has not come to pass. 

A civil war is different from terrorist attacks, violent street demonstrations or other political violence. It is usually defined by the emergence of an organized rebel army engaged in armed conflict seeking to overthrow a government. Some researchers argue that a conflict should have at least 1,000 battle deaths before people label it a civil war. 

In his X posts, Musk has not gone into detail on how he sees a civil war playing out. Does he think, for example, that migrants will form a rebel army to overthrow Westminster? Or that native Britons will? Or is he using “civil war” as a catch-all term for street violence? 

Experts in civil wars said that Musk is out of his depth on the subject. They said it’s very unlikely that Europe will experience a civil war due to immigration, and they said Musk appears to greatly overestimate the power and organization of people arriving in Europe. 

“Immigrants are not an organized rebel group ready to commit violence,” said Megan Stewart, an associate professor of public policy at the University of Michigan who studies political violence. 

“They are often fleeing dire and dangerous situations and just trying to live their lives,” she said. 

She said that, historically, the much more common dynamic in the U.S. and the U.K. is that immigrants are victims of violence perpetrated by right-wing extremists with white supremacist ideologies. 

In the past two weeks, far-right activists in Great Britain have used misinformation about an attack on a Taylor Swift-themed dance class as a pretext for anti-immigrant demonstrations. There have been mob attacks on mosques, immigrant-owned shops and hotels housing asylum-seekers. The suspect in the dance-class attack in which three children died is a 17-year-old who was born in the country, according to police. 

Thomas Zeitzoff, an associate professor of public affairs at American University who studies political violence, said that Musk’s prediction of war is likely to feed into false fears about immigrants. 

“It amplifies this misperception that these groups are wanting to fight,” he said. 

Zeitzoff said he believes Musk’s posts could encourage some anti-immigrant forces to take up arms. 

“If you start thinking that they’re ready to fight, then maybe we need to be, too,” he said. 

Some of Musk’s posts about “civil war” have received thousands of replies. The sentiment has been split, with some X users agreeing with him and others accusing Musk of “fear mongering.” Still others say they wonder why he’s spending his time on social media. At least one account said they were ready to fight. 

“Yep, ready cocked n loaded,” one X user responded to Musk last year, referencing firearms. 

Musk used similar “war” language when talking about immigration Monday with Trump in a live joint event on X. 

“We don’t have a secure border, and we have people streaming over. It looks like a ‘World War Z’ zombie apocalypse at times,” he told Trump. He was apparently comparing immigrants to zombies and referring to a 2013 action movie starring Brad Pitt. 

Musk has a record of spreading false information that could stir up fear of immigrants. Last year, he embraced the debunked “great replacement” theory, which says that there is a top-down plot to replace the white population with nonwhite “hordes.” He has smeared Haitians as cannibals, and he has boosted false claims that non-citizens are registering to vote in the U.S. 

After those claims were debunked, Musk has had various responses. He said he was “sorry” for his post about the great replacement theory but left it online. After criticism of his Haitian posts, he said he wanted to “screen immigrants for potential homicidal tendencies and cannibalism.” And after his claims about immigrants voting were found to be false, he has repeated them. 

Last year, the Justice Department sued Musk’s rocket company SpaceX saying it had discriminated against refugees in hiring. Musk called the case a “weaponization of the DOJ for political purposes” and said the company had been warned that hiring people who were not permanent U.S. residents would violate the law. SpaceX countersued, saying the regulatory system violates the Constitution, and it has won a temporary stay. 

Musk’s posts about civil war typically have a racial dimension. One of his posts came as a reply to an account criticizing “demographic pressure” from immigrants. Another time, Musk responded after the same account expressed dismay at the lack of assimilation by immigrants. 

“They are not there to be part of French or German or Italian or Swedish culture. They are there to replace you,” the account wrote. 

“Europe is trending towards civil war,” Musk replied. 

Musk’s adult daughter Vivian Jenna Wilson said in a recent post on the app Threads that her father once called Arabic the “language of the enemy.” She told NBC News that Musk made the comment after she said she wanted to learn the language when she was 6 years old. 

Asked for comment about that episode, Musk replied in an email to NBC News that Wilson “was killed by the woke mind virus. Now it will die.” 

Musk, a U.S. citizen who was born in South Africa, sometimes visits Europe including for business reasons. His companies including Tesla have operations there. 

But there are now calls for Musk to be held accountable in Europe for the impact of his words. British lawmakers told Politico they want to haul Musk before Parliament to answer questions, and some British columnists have suggested that Musk should face an investigation over his comments. 

“Were Musk to continue stirring up unrest, an arrest warrant for him might produce fireworks from his fingertips, but as an international jet-setter it would have the effect of focusing his mind,” wrote Bruce Daisley, a former executive at Twitter, which is now the Musk-owned X, in The Guardian on Monday. 

Musk reacted to Daisley’s column on X, calling him “insufferable.” He said in response to a separate Guardian column that the newspaper “should be on trial for aiding & abetting the destruction of Britain.” He also accused the British government of failing to guarantee free speech. 

In a different context, Musk once celebrated the idea that the U.S. could devolve into civil war, with him emerging in the end as president. 

In an end-of-year set of predictions on X in December 2022, former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev forecasted that California and Texas would break off from the U.S. and that Musk would win the presidential election “after the new Civil War’s end.” 

Musk replied to Medvedev: “Epic thread!!”