Euro 2024 power rankings: Rating every nation’s chances ahead of the knockout rounds

Euro 2024 is heading to the knockout stages after an entertaining group phase saw eight nations exit the tournament.

Spain were the only team to collect the maximum nine points, though Germany, Portugal and Austria all impressed on their way to topping their respective groups. England and Romania were the other two group winners, though they were far less convincing.

Here, we assess how every Euro 2024 nation stacks up after the first round of group games (this article will be updated after the round of 16 is completed).

1. Germany 🇩🇪 ↔️

Before the tournament, Julian Nagelsmann reshaped his midfield by parachuting in Toni Kroos from international retirement, and the signs are very promising. Germany thrashed Scotland 5-1 in the opener and found a buzz from Jamal Musiala and Florian Wirtz in the wide attacking positions, with Kai Havertz leading as a false nine and Ilkay Gundogan in the No 10 role. They beat Hungary and drew with Switzerland, and this reimagined German side appear a dangerous prospect. And with home advantage, Germany suddenly look like contenders to be crowned champions of Europe again, almost three decades after Euro ‘96.

2. Spain 🇪🇸 ⬆️ (5)

An exciting new generation of Spanish players is showing itself at these Euros, primarily through the talents of Atletico’s Nico Williams and Barcelona’s Lamine Yamal – the 16-year-old Yamal is already one of Barca’s best players and looked bright in an opening 3-0 win over Croatia, while Williams was even better against Italy. Spain outplayed the Italians in one of the most impressive performances of the tournament, before a rotated side beat Albania to complete a perfect group stage.

3. France 🇫🇷 ⬇️ (2)

France have not been European champions since 2000, but they arrived in Germany as one of the favourites to win the trophy after reaching the past two World Cup finals. Yet Didier Deschamps is still searching for the right blend and balance, as the pre-tournament defeat by Germany and draw with Canada showed, and they had to work hard for their win over Austria, before stale draws with the Dutch and Poland. With Kylian Mbappe’s broken nose requiring protective scaffolding for the rest of the tournament, it has not far from the perfect start.

4. Portugal 🇵🇹 ↔️

Portugal were the only team with a perfect qualifying record, winning 10 games out of 10, and neatly Cristiano Ronaldo scored 10 goals. A tough opening night against Czech Republic ended in victory thanks to Francisco Conceicao’s late winner supplied by fellow substitute Pedro Neto, and while they didn’t play fluently, Portugal showed off their strength in depth as their subs combined to steal the game. A much better showing saw off Turkey 3-0, before a changed team lost to Georgia. Roberto Martinez has one of best squads in Germany this summer.

5. England 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 ⬇️ (3)

The worry before the tournament was around England’s defence, and yet clean sheets against Serbia and Denmark were rare positives to take away from their stuttering start. In fact it has been the midfield and attack which has failed to click. Gareth Southgate has plenty of work on his hands in order to make a coherent, cohesive team who can live up to their billing as trophy challengers.

6. Austria 🇦🇹 ⬆️ (9)

Ralf Rangnick’s team were tipped by many as dark horses in this tournament after qualifying well, and while they opened up with a defeat by France, they then thumped Poland 3-0 and stunned Netherlands 3-2. In Marcel Sabitzer, Christoph Baumgartner and Michael Gregoritsch, Austria have some good players to call upon and their attacking approach has been fun to watch, though they offer up plenty of chances to the opposition.

7. Netherlands 🇳🇱 ⬇️ (6)

It was far from a comfortable start to the European Championship for Netherlands, conceding an early goal to Poland’s Adam Buksa, but their reaction showed promising signs as they recovered to win 2-1, and the goalless draw with France was a good result. Memphis Depay has struggled in the false nine role and – like England – there are questions about the balance in midfield, but Ronald Koeman’s side are into the last 16 despite defeat to Austria.

8. Italy 🇮🇹 ⬇️ (7)

The reigning champions have endured a mostly torrid time since the last Euros, and although they looked impressive for large chunks of their 2-1 win over Albania, they were thoroughly outplayed by Spain a few days later and needed a late goal to salvage a draw with Croatia. The Italians remain short of an elite goalscorer and will need to improve to defend their crown.

9. Belgium 🇧🇪 ⬇️ (8)

Belgium were the biggest casualties of the first round of games as they slumped to a frustrating 1-0 defeat by Slovakia. Romelu Lukaku top-scored in Euro 2024 qualifying with 14 goals, but he did not have his shooting boots on here as he squandered a number of chances and VAR decisions went against him. They were better in a 2-0 win over Ukraine as Kevin De Bruyne got on the scoresheet, but a drab 0-0 with Ukraine meant Belgium failed to top the group and they now face France in the last 16.

10. Switzerland 🇨🇭 ↔️

Switzerland impressed with a convincing 3-1 win over Hungary, showing an unexpected cutting edge to go with their obvious defensive steel. They followed that up with draws against Scotland and Germany to progress to the knockout rounds, where they could be a tricky proposition for opponents Italy.

11. Denmark 🇩🇰 ⬆️ (12)

The Danes qualified well for these Euros and the form of Rasmus Hojlund at Manchester United provided some hope ahead of the tournament. They have not found much rhythm so far but they are still unbeaten and will hope to make life difficult for hosts Germany in the round of 16.

12. Turkey 🇹🇷 ⬆️ (18)

Turkey looked in disarray only a couple of months again but their wild opening win against Georgia showed they can be a threat in this tournament, as Arda Guler scored a stunning goal. Their last-gasp victory over 10-man Czech Republic on Thursday night was less impressive, but it helped secure second spot and a date with Austria.

13. Romania 🇷🇴 ⬆️ (20)

Romania finished top of their qualifying group and unbeaten, and they carried that form into the Euro 2024 finals with an impressive opening win over Ukraine. Star player and captain Nicolai Stanciu has spent the past few years playing in China and Saudi Arabia, but looked a level above the rest with his performance in the 3-0 victory. They managed to secure a surprise top spot when all four Group E teams finished on four points.

14. Slovenia 🇸🇮 ↔️

Slovenia are yet to hit their stride and have struggled to supply striker Benjamin Sesko with meaningful chances. A third-place finish in Group C has set up a tricky tie with Portugal in the last 16.

15. Slovakia 🇸🇰 ↔️

Slovakia squeezed through a competitive group with Belgium, Romania and Ukraine by finishing third, after shocking the Belgians in round one. Their two performances since that win were less convincing. Captain Milan Skriniar is the defensive keystone and left winger Lukas Haraslin provides attacking impetus after a stellar season for Sparta Prague.

16. Georgia 🇬🇪 ⬆️ (23)

There were celebrations in the streets of Tbilisi after Georgia beat Portugal to qualify for the knockout stages. The French former Bayern Munich defender Willy Sagnol is the manager and he has built a team that looks lively and energetic, with Khvicha Kvaratskhelia the star among a talented squad. Their performance against Portugal was full of spirit and no little quality, but they will need to tighten up when they meet Spain in the last 16, having conceded the most expected goals (6.0) in the competition so far.

Eliminated

Scotland

Hungary

Albania

Croatia

Serbia

Poland

Ukraine

Czech Republic