European Elections 2024: Billy Kelleher and Luke ‘Ming’ Flanagan topping polls as hopes fading for sitting MEP Grace O’Sullivan

Fine Gael’s Sean Kelly was elected on the first count on Monday night, leaving 22 candidates vying for four seats in the 10-county constituency.

In the 10 counts that have taken place since then, and after 10 candidates were eliminated, no great gains were made.

Fianna Fail’s Billy Kelleher, who was just over 20,000 votes shy of the quota after the first count, has gained little more than 3,000 transfers, casting doubt over whether he will reach the quota.

After Mr Kelleher’s 90,000-odd votes, next is Independent TD Michael McNamara on 62,591 votes, Fianna Fail’s Cynthia Ni Mhurchu on 58,278, and outgoing MEP Mick Wallace on 57,989.

Sinn Fein TD Kathleen Funchion (53,655) and the Green Party’s Grace O’Sullivan (50,576) are also in the running.

The transfer votes of Ms Funchion’s running mate, Paul Gavan, and Mr Kelly’s running mate, John Mullins, as well as those of the Social Democrats’ Susan Doyle and Labour’s Niamh Hourigan, are expected to be crucial on who claims the final MEP seat in Ireland South.

The process of transferring votes between the South’s candidates, as per Ireland’s proportional representation, has taken longer than had been estimated by observers at Nemo Rangers GAA Club in Cork.

Meanwhile, in Midlands Northwest Independent candidate John Waters was eliminated after the 11th count in Midland Northwest.

Counting in the constituency resumed this morning at 9am at the Castlebar count centre.

The results for the 11th count after the redistribution of 15283 votes from Green Party candidate Pauline O’Reilly (eliminated after 10th count on Tuesday) were announced after 2.5 hours.

No candidate has reached the quota of 113,325 votes yet. His votes are now being re-distributed.

Sitting MEP Luke ‘Ming Flanagan is topping the polls with 82856 votes, while MEP Chris McManus is lagging behind with only 31045 votes.

Green Party MEP Ciaran Cuffe lost his seat in Europe after he was eliminated on the 18th count in the Dublin constituency yesterday. It followed outgoing MEP Clare Daly’s exclusion on the 17th count.

In the local elections battle, Fianna Fáil was neck and neck with Fine Gael on 245 seats each, with only a handful of 949 seats left to declare.

In Dublin’s European constituency, Fianna Fáil’s Barry Andrews, Fine Gael’s Regina Doherty, Sinn Féin’s Lynn Boylan and Labour’s Aodhán Ó Ríordáin were elected as the counts concluded and all four seats filled.

John Moran is elected Limerick Mayor

In Midlands North-West, incumbent MEP Luke “Ming” Flanagan is still leading the pack after topping the poll on Monday night. Next was Fine Gael’s first-time candidate and former jockey Nina Carberry, who was narrowly ahead of Fianna Fáil’s Barry Cowen. If the race stays as it currently stands, Maria Walsh will also be returning to Strasbourg as an MEP for Fine Gael in the fourth seat.

The fifth and final seat looks set to be taken by Independent Ireland candidate and former RTÉ correspondent Ciaran Mullooly. Sinn Féin’s Michelle Gildernew, who was her party’s main hope of retaining a seat in the constituency, conceded yesterday it was “very unlikely” she’d take a seat.

In Ireland South, Fine Gael’s Sean Kelly became the first MEP elected in Ireland, taking the first of five seats on Monday night. Fianna Fáil’s Billy Kelleher is in place to take the second seat, but the final three seats are considered too close to call.

Independent TD Michael McNamara and Fianna Fáil candidate and 1994 Eurovision host Cynthia Ní Mhurchú are polling in second and third place.

Outgoing MEP Mick Wallace, Sinn Féin TD Kathleen Funchion and the Green Party’s Grace O’Sullivan also look to be in contention for the final seat with the count in Cork expected to extend into tomorrow.

Independent John Moran maintained his lead to comfortably win the historic mayoral election in Limerick.

Meanwhile, Coalition in-fighting has continued after the elections, with Green Party leader Eamon Ryan confronting the Taoiseach and Tánaiste at their weekly leaders meeting.

Mr Ryan took serious issue with accusations that his party is “autocratic” and insisted coalition partners should not be publicly attacking each other for electoral gain.

However, his decision to air his grievances live on RTÉ One’s Prime Time programme just a couple of hours after the meeting raised concerns within the other parties.

The move led to suggestions Mr Ryan was launching political attacks in an attempt to deflect from the Greens’ poor showing in the local and European election. The party lost half of their council seats and now have just 24 councillors.

But as several Green candidates waited anxiously for counts to conclude yesterday, Mr Ryan was hitting out at his coalition partners, saying it was “totally inappropriate and wrong” to make personal attacks on his party for electoral gain.

He said “systematic” attacks on the Greens were partly responsible for the collapse in their support, adding that coalition partners should not hit colleagues with “accusations that aren’t true”.

He specifically highlighted a claim by Fine Gael’s Regina Doherty that the Green Party was “autocratic” and speaking down to people. It is understood the comments were made at the weekly leaders meeting a couple hours before Mr Ryan went on TV.

Mr Ryan said: “We are democratic. We believe in the constitutional democratic process. We work well in coalition. We are not out there lambasting our colleague or making personal attacks on government colleagues.”

He raised the issue with Taoiseach Simon Harris and Tánaiste Micheál Martin, and suggested he be given a commitment that it would not happen during a general election. But he conceded that political leaders couldn’t control everything their members say and added that he regretted comments by some of his own party.

Speaking on his way into Cabinet yesterday, the Taoiseach said it was “entirely appropriate” for parties to express political views during elections campaigns, but it should be done in a “civil and respectful way”.

However, a Fianna Fáil source said Mr Ryan’s intervention was aimed at deflecting the focus from his own role in his party’s decline in support.

“Campaigns are campaigns and show me a campaign where some s**t isn’t thrown,” the source said. “Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael are not running in all the other EU countries where the Greens lost seats,” the source added.

A Fine Gael source dismissed suggestions party members would no longer highlight concerns with Green Party policies.

“There will be plenty more criticism of the Green Party during the general election and every party is entitled to have their own policy platforms if they’re in government or not,” the source said.

A Green Party source denied Mr Ryan’s TV intervention was orchestrated to deflect from the seat losses.

Meanwhile, there is also squabbling between Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael over who could claim victory in the elections.

Fianna Fáil Chief Whip and director of elections for the local elections Jack Chambers issued a statement saying his party would have the most seats in local government.

However, Fine Gael issued a statement not long after noting that most voters in the local and European elections gave the party their number one preference.

Both parties got more than 240 seats in the local elections but Fianna Fáil is expected to become the largest party in councils. Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael are on course to secure four seats in the European Parliament.

The rise in government tensions will spark future speculation about the potential for an election later this year.

A senior Cabinet minister yesterday said they expected the election to be in November once the Budget had been announced. However, Finance Minister Michael McGrath said his view was that the legislation underpinning Budget measures should be passed before the country went to the polls.

In the Dáil, the Taoiseach used the Leader’s Questions debate to claim bragging rights from the election result and accused Social Democrats of ignoring the outcome of the vote.

He told People Before Profit he wished them “better luck next time” and said he did not need a “Mary Lou-splaining” from the Sinn Féin leader.