European elections: Polls show Barry Cowen could fall foul of party’s split vote, while Mick Wallace faces scrap to get back in

Meanwhile, right-wing shock-jock Niall Boylan is fighting it out with soft-left candidates Ciarán Cuffe and Aodhán Ó Ríordáin for a seat.

And the Social Democrats are a very long shot for a seat, with Holly Cairns’ candidate challenging two sitting MEPs.

Private polling data, confirmed by the Irish Independent, shows Independent and smaller party candidates firmly in contention for up to six seats in the European elections.

The polling was undertaken in the last 10 days with a sample size of about 1,400 and a full slate of candidates.

Sinn Féin will comfortably win three seats, but the party is falling short of taking second seats.

And Simon Harris is in contention for a “freak” result with his line-up.

Ireland Midlands North West: Independents’ day

Former RTÉ News correspondent Ciarán Mullooly, running for Independent Ireland, is going really well, as is left-wing Independent MEP Luke ‘Ming’ Flanagan. As of now, both are in position to win seats. Aontú TD Peadar Tóibín is also firmly in the race.

Sinn Féin will also take a seat, with sitting MEP Chris MacManus polling slightly better than Westminster MP Michelle Gildernew. However, the party will be in contention for a second seat if its support solidifies.

Fianna Fáil’s tactic of running three candidates has backfired. Cowen is polling way ahead of Lisa Chambers and Niall Blaney. But there is a danger the party’s vote is being split too much, which could lead to Mr Cowen getting overtaken.

And that could benefit Fine Gael. Celebrity candidate Nina Carberry is polling just ahead of sitting MEP Maria Walsh, with an outside shot of a second seat.

“Mullooly is killing Cowen in the midlands,” a source said. “Cowen needs to go west for Fianna Fáil votes.

“Fine Gael have an outside chance of two. A freak result could happen and a lot of things would have to go right, but it would be a freak.”

Fianna Fáil is not dividing the constituency, so Mr Cowen will be free to campaign across the coasts. Party supporters are likely to swing in behind him once it’s obvious he is the “real” party candidate.

No candidates are currently getting elected on the first count, with anything up to eight coming in around the half-a-quota mark

Solid: Ciaran Mullooly, Luke ‘Ming’ Flanagan

Scurrying: Peadar Tóibín, Nina Carberry, Maria Walsh, Chris MacManus, Michelle Gildernew, Barry Cowen

Ireland South: Hard or soft-left swing

A shoot-out for the last seat is on the cards here, with two MEPs battling it out with a possible surprise package.

Sitting MEP Mick Wallace, under his Independents4Change banner, and Green Party MEP Grace O’Sullivan, are both under pressure.

Social Democrats candidate Susan Doyle is not that far behind the Greens and a late run would see her in the frame to overtake Ms O’Sullivan and take on Mr Wallace.

Independent TD Michael McNamara is polling strongly and is now a favourite to take a seat. The first three seats are terribly straightforward, with Sinn Féin TD Kathleen Funchion, along with Fine Gael MEP Seán Kelly and Fianna Fáil MEP Billy Kelleher, all safe and sound.

Sinn Féin’s second candidate, Senator Paul Gavan, is back in the pack and will need a big swing towards his party to be in the frame – so he can’t be ruled out.

Fine Gael’s John Mullins is also polling not-badly, but mainly from his Cork base.

Safe: Kathleen Funchion, Sean Kelly, Billy Kelleher

Stable: Michael McNamara

Scramble: Mick Wallace, Grace O’Sullivan, Susan Doyle, Paul Gavan

Dublin: Going right, left or centre

Beyond SInn Féin’s Lynn Boylan topping the poll and being elected comfortably, nothing else is a certainty in Dublin.

The performance of sitting MEP Clare Daly of Independents4Change will be key as she appears to be in grave danger. Her campaign has been low-key to date, so she’ll need to up the tempo to hold on.

Fianna Fáil’s sitting MEP Barry Andrews and Fine Gael’s Regina Doherty will definitely win one seat between them. However, there is a question mark over whether there are really two centre-ground party seats.

At the moment, the polling is suggesting both will be elected, which would be a superb result for Micheál Martin and a relief for Simon Harris. Neither are safe though.

Niall Boylan of Independent Ireland is definitely in contention, along with Green Party MEP Ciarán Cuffe and Labour’s Aodhán Ó Ríordáin.

Sinn Féin’s second candidate Daithí Doolan is not featuring, so will be reliant on a big boost for his party over the last three weeks to get in the hunt.

Sorted: Lynn Boylan

Scavenging: Barry Andrews, Regina Doherty, Clare Daly, Niall Boylan, Ciarán Cuffe, Aodhán Ó Ríordáin