Europe’s leaders face up to Trump victory at Hungarian summit

Trade is another concern, especially for the EU.

The US is its biggest trade partner. But Trump is protectionist. He loves slapping tariffs on imports, he says.

This is bad news for Europe’s already sluggish economies. Like export-reliant Germany, with its ailing automobile industry. The European Commission says it’s ready, if needs be, with retaliatory measures, but would rather avoid marching down the trade war path with Trump.

Unity is another niggle. Trump, with his America First policy, not unlike Russia’s Vladimir Putin or Xi Jinping of China, who push their own nationalist agendas on the world stage, would prefer not to face off against a strong, united Europe. Divide and rule is their preference.

Viktor Orban is not the only huge Trump fan here. So is Slovakia’s prime minister, and, to an extent, Italy’s premier too. They lean towards Trump in a way that divides them from most of the rest.

Brussels frets about other EU member states now potentially rushing to secure good bilateral relations with Trump at the expense of unity. Leaving the bloc weaker.

But an EU diplomat I spoke to, who asked not to be named in order to speak freely, believes the opposite could also be true.

“We in Brussels angst-ed about Brexit at the time,” he told me.

“We thought other member states would follow the UK out the EU door. But the reverse happened. EU countries melded together more through the Brexit process. Donald Trump might have the same effect on us. Drive us closer together. Force us to be more self-reliant.”

Just before US election day, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, himself a former big figure in Brussels proclaimed on X: “The future of Europe no longer depends on presidential elections in the US, but primarily on Europe itself.”

Maybe. Or maybe not.

Another, rather scared school of thought amongst traditional politicians in Europe is that this victory for Trump could prove a boost for right-wing nationalists far closer to home.

European populists who share his belief that they are the true voice of voters: upset about the economy, about immigration, about the state of their respective countries and demanding change now.