Kentucky Derby 2024: Math says 6 horses have clinched a spot

The arithmetic says seven horses have assured themselves of
invitations to Kentucky Derby 2024. Well, really it is six. Past experience suggests at least four or
five more should have their connections confident enough to make plans for May
4 at Churchill Downs.

After Catching Freedom punched his ticket by winning the
Grade 2 Louisiana Derby on Saturday, and since Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) victor
Endlessly apparently will be diverted to the turf, the mathematical cutline did
not move much. Any horse with at least 65 points has clinched.

First Look: See who could clinch this weekend.

Track Phantom, West Saratoga and Honor Marie had enough
points from their previous preps to earn their way into the Derby thanks to
their top-four finishes Saturday. Timberlake, who will race this weekend in the
Arkansas Derby (G1), already had clinched.

T O Password, the winner of Saturday’s Fukuryu Stakes, looks
like he will use the invitation that comes from the Japan road to the
Derby. Triple Crown liaison Kate Hunter said that if he did not, Ramjet would take
it.

That would leave 19 post positions to be filled by
qualifiers from the main points trail, but it could be only 18. There is the
small complication of waiting for the Europe invitation to be accepted or rejected.
That will not be formal until after the April 6 running of the Cardinal Stakes
at Chelmsford City, England.

There are 100-point rewards still sitting out there for the
winners of the six major preps this weekend and next, including the UAE Derby (G2), Florida Derby (G1) and Arkansas Derby on Saturday. That means six
horses with no points could poach those invitations. Add 50 points to each of the
horses ranked 21st through 26th, and that means there could be as many as 18
horses with at least 65 points.

The cutline is likely to come down as horses already in the top 20 finish in the top two of the major preps. As a result, Dornoch, Domestic Product, Sierra Leone and Deterministic and maybe even No More Time probably are in. It just not mathematically certain yet.

With points and earnings reported by Churchill Downs, these
are the current clinch scenarios for Kentucky Derby 2024: