Oreshnik Missile Strike: Putin’s Message to Washington and Europe

Russia’s Ballistic Missile Strike on Ukraine: The Political Motives Behind the Move

Russia’s launch of a new intermediate-range ballistic missile against Ukraine this week was a move laden with political messaging rather than military strategy. President Vladimir Putin confirmed the use of the Oreshnik missile, emphasizing its potential to influence both the battlefield and international policy.

The missile strike, which targeted Ukraine’s city of Dnipro, left three wounded and caused significant damage to an industrial facility and a rehabilitation center. However, analysts argue the primary target wasn’t in Ukraine but across the Atlantic and Europe.

“This was a political strike, not a military one,” wrote Mick Ryan, a retired Australian Army major general and senior fellow at the Lowy Institute.

A New Message to the West

Since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Putin has used the threat of nuclear weapons to deter Western support for Kyiv. Yet, as this nuclear rhetoric has been repeated, its shock value may have waned. Analysts believe Putin deployed the Oreshnik missile to send a fresh signal to Washington, Europe, and NATO.

“Putin may perceive that his frequent nuclear threats are losing their effectiveness,” Ryan explained. “He needed a different signal to Washington, and he chose to do so with a different kind of weapon.”

This new missile, capable of speeds exceeding Mach 5, has a range of over 5,000 kilometers, making it capable of hitting almost any target in Europe or the United Kingdom. Though it carried a conventional warhead during the strike, its implied capability as a nuclear delivery system is undeniable.

Why Not Nuclear?

Putin’s rhetoric has long included nuclear threats, but several factors likely deter Russia from escalating to atomic weapons. These include potential global backlash from key players like China and India and the risks of unpredictable blowback.

Instead, the November 21 strike demonstrated Russia’s ability to deploy advanced weapons while stopping short of a nuclear escalation.

“It’s the kind of signaling you engage in when you can’t, in fact, escalate in the way you’ve been threatening,” said Ruth Deyermond, senior lecturer in war studies at King’s College London.

The Pentagon has suggested the Oreshnik missile is based on the RS-26 or Rubezh, both advanced weapons in Russia’s arsenal. While it may not represent a shift in Russian strike capabilities, the missile reinforces Moscow’s intention to project power and deter Western actions.

A Warning to the U.S. and Europe

With President Joe Biden nearing the end of his term and President-elect Donald Trump preparing to take office, Putin’s missile strike may be aimed at influencing U.S. policy during the transition. Biden has remained a steadfast supporter of Ukraine, while Trump has repeatedly claimed he would broker peace quickly, raising fears that U.S. support for Kyiv might wane under his leadership.

“This strike is a message to Europe and the U.S.,” Ryan noted, adding that it also signals Russia’s willingness to extend its influence beyond Ukraine.

By using a weapon with extensive range, Putin has also sought to intimidate Europe, which faces its own political and economic challenges tied to the ongoing war. The strike underscores Russia’s capacity to target nations supporting Ukraine and signals that Moscow is willing to assert its influence across the continent.

The Takeaway

Russia’s use of the Oreshnik missile in Dnipro was less about immediate battlefield gains and more about geopolitical signaling. The Kremlin aims to deter Western nations from providing further aid to Ukraine and to influence policy discussions in Washington, Brussels, and beyond.

However, the move also exposes Putin’s reliance on high-stakes signaling to maintain his grip on the narrative as the war drags on. Whether this tactic will yield the desired results—or further galvanize Western resolve—remains to be seen.

For now, the strike serves as a stark reminder of how deeply the conflict in Ukraine is entwined with global politics and security dynamics far beyond its borders.