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Premier League final day: Title race, European places, relegation battle

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Premier League final day: Title race, European places, relegation battle

The Premier League season finishes on Sunday, with the league champions, qualifiers for European competitions and the third relegated club all yet to be confirmed.

The title

Manchester City start the day two points ahead of Arsenal but with a marginally worse goal difference.

City will be champions:

Arsenal will be champions:

The remaining European places

The fifth-place finisher qualifies for the Europa League. For sixth and seventh, it will depend on the outcome of the FA Cup final, the winners of which earn a Europa League place.

If Manchester City win the FA Cup, that Europa League place reverts to the league so the sixth-placed team will play in next season’s Europa League, and the seventh-placed team will be in the Europa Conference League.

If Manchester United win the FA Cup, they get in the Europa League wherever they finish, and the highest-placed team not yet qualified for Europe gets the Europa Conference League place.

So let’s take it team by team…

Tottenham:

  • Will be fifth if they avoid defeat at Sheffield United, or if Chelsea fail to win

  • Will be sixth if they lose AND Chelsea win

Chelsea:

  • Will be fifth if they beat Bournemouth AND Tottenham lose

  • Will be sixth if they win AND Tottenham avoid defeat

  • Will be sixth if they draw, regardless of any other results

  • Will be seventh if they lose AND Newcastle United win, or if Manchester United win while making up a 16-goal swing in goal difference over the Blues

  • Will be eighth if they lose AND Newcastle win AND Manchester United win while making up the aforementioned 16-goal swing

Newcastle:

  • Will be sixth if they win at Brentford AND Chelsea lose

  • Will be seventh if they win AND Chelsea avoid defeat

  • Will be seventh if they draw AND Manchester United fail to win

  • Will be seventh if they lose AND Manchester United lose

  • Will be eighth if they fail to win AND Manchester United win

Manchester United:

  • Will be sixth if they win at Brighton AND Chelsea lose, with United making up an unfathomable 16-goal swing in goal difference on them, AND Newcastle fail to win

  • Will be seventh if they better Newcastle’s result, if they win and Newcastle fail to win, or if they draw and Newcastle lose

  • Will be eighth if Newcastle match their result, if both teams win, draw or lose, or if Manchester United draw and Newcastle avoid defeat – or if Manchester United lose no matter what happens elsewhere

There is a highly unlikely scenario in which Manchester United could overtake Newcastle if both clubs win or both lose. However, it would require an improbable 25-goal swing in goal difference for this to occur. For example, if Newcastle win 1-0, Manchester United would need to win by a margin of 26 goals or more to move above them in the table.

The remaining relegation spot

Luton Town will be relegated unless they beat Fulham AND Nottingham Forest lose at Burnley, while the Hatters would also need to make up a 12-goal swing in goal difference across the two games, which would improbably relegate the Reds instead.

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