Preview: Spain vs. Georgia – prediction, team news, lineups

After taking very different routes through the group stage, Spain and Euro 2024 underdogs Georgia meet for a last-16 contest in Cologne on Sunday evening.

While La Roja strode through as Group B winners with a 100% record, the Georgians stole into the knockout phase with a stunning defeat of Portugal; the unlikely pair now vie for a place in the quarter-finals.

Match preview

© Imago

Winning all three group games at a European Championship for the first time since 2008 – when their brief reign of global supremacy began – Spain could afford to make 10 changes and still take maximum points from Monday’s meeting with Albania.

Top spot was already secured, so Luis de la Fuente took the opportunity to rotate his talented squad, and Ferran Torres needed just 13 minutes to put La Roja in front, giving them a lead they would never relinquish.

Having previously taught reigning champions Italy a lesson in Gelsenkirchen and swept aside Croatia in Berlin, the Spanish squad now march on to the knockout rounds for a fifth successive major tournament – and the seventh time in eight.

One of the competition favourites, they have found themselves in what has been generally deemed the tougher half of the draw, with a quarter-final against hosts Germany – plus a possible semi-final clash with France – perhaps lying ahead.

Rejuvenated under De la Fuente, who has pivoted towards a more direct playing style, Spain are yet to concede a single goal, and the last time a Spanish side kept four successive clean sheets at a major finals was back in 2012, when they last conquered Europe.

Before lifting the Henri Delaunay trophy again, though, La Roja must initially improve on their showing at Qatar 2022 – where they exited in the last 16 to Morocco – and they have once again been pitted against in-form outsiders.

So far, Spain have won six of seven matches against Georgia in all competitions, including in qualifying for this summer’s finals: they won both fixtures by an aggregate margin of eight goals – 7-1 away and 3-1 at home.

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In fact, that crushing defeat in Tbilisi is the only time Georgia have ever conceded seven goals in a senior international, but their remarkable journey since that setback has brought them under the spotlight like never before.

After edging through the playoffs via a penalty shootout, Willy Sagnol‘s spirited side are now into the knockout stages of what is Georgia’s first major tournament – mostly thanks to an improbable success on Wednesday evening.

Meeting already-qualified Portugal in their final Group F contest, the Crusaders capitalised on two defensive lapses by the Selecao, as Khvicha Kvaratskhelia scored a sensational opener – netting the fastest goal of the finals so far – and fellow forward Georges Mikautadze continued his push for the Golden Boot.

After setting up the first for ‘Kvaradona’, Metz striker Mikautadze coolly converted a second-half penalty to put his team on course for an infamous victory, and he has played a direct part in all four of Georgia’s goals at Euro 2024.

Backing up a committed all-round performance, Giorgi Mamardashvili‘s excellence in goal proved crucial on the night, and was also prominent in an opening loss to Turkey and subsequent 1-1 draw with the Czech Republic.

To this point, Georgia have faced the most shots (71), most on target (25) and conceded the highest xG of any nation taking part in Germany; but Sagnol’s men will not be too concerned, having already become heroes by toppling Cristiano Ronaldo and co.

Georgia’s sole win over Spain came in a long-forgotten 2016 friendly, but having just shocked La Roja’s Iberian neighbours to reach uncharted waters, they may believe a place in the quarter-finals is not entirely beyond them.

Spain European Championship form:

Spain form (all competitions):

Georgia European Championship form:

Georgia form (all competitions):

Team News

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After Luis de la Fuente gave several squad players a run-out against Albania, his Spain XI should look much more familiar this weekend: Manchester City midfielder Rodri is back from a one-match ban and joins a number of other men in returning to the side.

Centre-back Nacho – who has just announced his departure from Real Madrid, with whom he won 26 major trophies – will be back in action after being sidelined last time out; veteran right-back Jesus Navas is also available despite suffering a minor foot injury.

Though Germany-based playmaker Dani Olmo impressed on his first start at Euro 2024, setting up the only goal for Ferran Torres – who moved on to 20 for the national team – neither is expected to begin Sunday’s game.

Lamine Yamal and Nico Williams should instead return to support captain Alvaro Morata up front. Both young stars have created at least five chances and completed at least five dribbles so far – the first time two Spanish players have done so in the group stage since Andres Iniesta and David Silva at Euro 2016.

Meanwhile, three defenders will miss a potential quarter-final if booked: Dani Carvajal, Robin Le Normand and Dani Vivian.

Georgia will be without Anzor Mekvabishvili due to suspension, so their midfield may remain unchanged from midweek, but two-time ‘Georgian Player of the Year’ Solomon Kvirkvelia could be brought into the back line.

French boss Willy Sagnol is sure to set his side up in a 5-3-2 formation, spearheaded by Napoli winger Khvicha Kvaratskhelia and Euro 2024’s leading scorer Georges Mikautadze.

The latter has become only the fourth player to score in each of his country’s first three matches at the European Championship, after Gareth Bale (Wales, 2016), Hristo Stoichkov (Bulgaria, 1996) and Viktor Ponedelnik (USSR, 1960 and 1964).

Giorgi Mamardashvili, on the books of Spanish club Valencia since 2021, has saved no fewer than 16 of his last 17 shots faced at this summer’s finals. In fact, his total of 21 saves so far is the joint-most of any goalkeeper in the group phase to date, alongside Latvia’s Alexanders Kolinko in 2004.

Spain possible starting lineup:
Simon; Carvajal, Le Normand, Laporte, Cucurella; Pedri, Rodri, Ruiz; Yamal, Morata, Williams

Georgia possible starting lineup:
Mamardashvili; Tsitaishvili, Dvali, Kashia, Kverkvelia, Kakabadze; Kochorashvili, Kiteishvili, Chakvetadze; Kvaratskhelia, Mikautadze

We say: Spain 3-1 Georgia

After experiencing an historic night in Gelsenkirchen, Georgia may be brought back down to earth by a fluent Spain side with the potential to claim Euro 2024 glory.

One of the Georgians’ potent front pair may again get their name on the scoresheet, but La Roja look focused on reaching the final and can carve open even the most disciplined defence.

For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.

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