Space exploration: A key industry for Europe’s future

Space exploration is no longer science fiction; it has become an essential infrastructure that significantly impacts our lives. It improves internet coverage in remote areas, enables more accurate weather forecasts, and supports climate change monitoring.

Additionally, it plays a crucial role in our security, as countries without access to space-based technologies are severely limited in their defence capabilities. This is evident in Ukraine, where the military relies heavily on Starlink for communication, without which they would be even more vulnerable.

As space evolves into a new economic and security domain with numerous practical applications, Germany and Europe must decide whether to become dependent on external technologies and infrastructures or harness their vast potential to create world-leading space companies and maintain sovereignty.

Miniaturisation and cost efficiency as drivers

Thanks to significant advancements in electronics, satellites today are much smaller and cheaper than they were a few years ago. Previously, they often weighed several tons and cost hundreds of millions of euros each. Now, many satellites weigh only around 20 kg and cost less than 100,000 euros each.

This miniaturisation allows for networks of thousands of satellites instead of just individual ones. The high number of smaller satellites enables operations in much lower orbits, around 500 km, compared to the previous standard of 36,000 km.

This proximity to Earth results in lower latency and enables new applications like internet provision from orbit, as seen with Starlink. The accuracy of existing applications, such as GPS systems, also improves significantly, potentially increasing from +/- 10 meters to +/- 1 cm—a quantum leap for autonomous driving.

Launch vehicles as bottlenecks

These advancements have led to an explosion in the demand for satellite launches. While only 50 to 150 satellites were launched annually in past decades, over 2,500 were launched last year, and projections for the 2030s estimate an average of over 10,000 per year.

A rocket can carry multiple satellites at once, provided its payload capacity allows it. However, with lighter satellites, another requirement becomes limiting: the need for flexibility to deploy individual satellites into different orbits. Satellites are primarily passive and must be released very close to their planned orbits by the rocket. The upper stage of the rocket system, which is responsible for this, must visit different orbits for each satellite in a single flight.

The fuel needed for this limits the number of satellites that can be placed per flight, typically around 20 small satellites per launch.

To keep costs per kilogram low, the rocket’s payload capacity must be fully utilized. Therefore, rockets of varying sizes and payload capacities are needed depending on satellite weights. Just as it makes little sense to deliver 20 books with a 36-ton truck, new rockets of different sizes are being developed. These range from smaller microlaunchers with payloads of less than a ton to SpaceX’s Starship with over 150 tons of payload. The current workhorse of the Western space industry, the SpaceX Falcon 9, has a payload capacity of about 20 tons.

If the forecast of over 10,000 satellite launches per year in the 2030s holds true, this translates to a need for well over 500 rocket launches per year, or about 10 per week. This massive demand for transportation offers ample opportunity for all the new rockets currently being developed.

Why every test flight is a success

In this context, startup entrepreneurs have shifted their development philosophy. Instead of years of theoretical simulation, they test their rockets earlier in live operations, gather experience, learn, and test again. In this iterative process, initial test flights are still part of the regular development cycle.

This means that the rocket does not necessarily reach orbit on the first try. On the contrary, no liquid-fuel rocket developed under this philosophy has reached space on its first test flight. SpaceX’s Falcon 1, for instance, took four attempts. Every test flight lasting longer than 14 seconds is considered a tremendous success. It’s no wonder SpaceX celebrated the first flight of Starship despite its explosion.

Europe needs a clear space strategy

How can Europe transform the enormous potential of innovative spacetech startups like Isar Aerospace, RFA, and HyImpulse into a thriving industry? This sector is crucial for European sovereignty, prosperity, and security.

Recent achievements by SpaceX highlight the challenge ahead: SpaceX can launch as many rockets in a single day as Europe does in an entire year, underscoring the significant lead the USA has in space exploration. However, it is not too late for Europe to catch up if we set the right course now.

Space exploration must no longer be a political niche topic. European governments must recognize that our prosperity, security, and sovereignty are being decided in space.

Therefore, their policies must be ambitious and bold, leading to concrete political action. This requires political courage and, of course, funding. For comparison, the USA currently invests four times more, and France still invests 2.5 times more than Germany in relation to their GDP.

Governments must award more contracts to startups, especially in the field of space exploration. While SpaceX alone has received NASA contracts worth well over 10 billion US dollars, European rocket builders are almost exclusively reliant on private clients.

European startups must have a fair chance to participate in programs like IRIS2. Public tenders should no longer be designed in a way that effectively excludes startups through excessive regulations and bureaucracy. Only by opening the market to competition can Europe build internationally competitive companies.

In short, space is of crucial importance for our security and defence. Europe has significant potential to catch up in this area. Political decision-makers across the continent must now rethink and adjust space strategies and investments to ensure the long-term competitiveness and independence of the sector.

Lead image: ReOrbit.