Stocks reboot after tech slide, ECB keeps Europe guessing

LONDON, July 18 (Reuters) – Stock markets pulled out of tech-led tumble on Thursday, as attention turned to whether the European Central Bank would signal September as its next likely point to cut interest rates after sitting on its hands at its latest meeting.

It was a busy day all round.

Wall Street was hoping for a Nasdaq reboot after its worst day since December 2022 . Japan’s yen wilted after scaling a six-week high, while both the bond markets and euro were hearing from Christine Lagarde after the ECB left its only-recently pruned rates untouched.

Given that its policymakers have not been pushing back against market expectations, BNP Paribas economist Luca Pennarola said that “barring any shocks” September was now their preferred date for the next rate cut.

His colleague Mariana Monteiro said it would be important to hear whether Thursday’s decision – which was fully expected – was unanimous given an emerging divergence over a potentially spluttering economic recovery but also stubborn pockets of inflation.

“We are not pre-committing to a particular rate path,” Lagarde said in her opening remarks.

Back in the FX market, the U.S. dollar was still loitering close to its weakest level in four months against a basket of currencies.
Comments from Federal Reserve officials have bolstered the case for September cut in the U.S. too. That in turn meant gold was perched near its recent record highs.

Wall Street futures were going up. Europe’s STOXX 600 was to snap a three-session losing streak with carmaker stocks (.SXAP), opens new tab driving the benchmark index with a 1.8% rise.

Tech (.SX8P), opens new tab was only fractionally higher though after a 4.4% slump on Wednesday – also its worst day since December 2022 – following a report that the U.S. was considering tighter curbs on exports of advanced semiconductor technology to China.

MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS), opens new tab has seen a sub-index of IT stocks (.MIAPJIT00NUS), opens new tab drop 2.5% overnight. Tech-heavy South Korean shares (.KS11), opens new tab slipped 1.5%, while Taiwan stocks (.TWII), opens new tab fell 2%.

The yen’s overnight strength and the sharp drop in chip stocks took Japan’s Nikkei (.N225), opens new tab down more than 2%, although the yen came off in Europe after daily data showed little fresh evidence of intervention from authorities.

“This volatility spike is now leading to some broader risk reduction as investors worry about stretched positioning,” said Ben Bennett, Asia-Pacific investment strategist at Legal and General Investment Management.

TAKE, TAKE, TAKE

Broader risk sentiment was also still jittery after Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump said on Wednesday Taiwan “did take about 100% of our chip business” and should pay the U.S. for its defence as it does not give the country anything.

China stocks had wavered as investors awaited policy news from a key leadership gathering in Beijing. The Shanghai Composite index (.SSEC), opens new tab made a late push to end up 0.55% although the tech sector (.CSIINT), opens new tab still finished down.

The dollar index , which measures the U.S. currency versus six peers, was 0.1% higher at 103.78, not far from the four-month low of 103.64 it touched on Wednesday.

Jobs data just out showed the number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits rose more than expected last week, although there has been no material shift in the labor market it suggested.

The data is typically noisy in July anyway because of summer breaks and temporary factory closures.

The yen was last at 156, while the euro was hovering at $1.0930 as ECB chief started to speak in Frankfurt.

Bank of Japan data suggested Tokyo may have bought nearly 6 trillion yen last week to lift the frail yen away from the 38-year lows it has been rooted to since the start of the month.

The yen has dropped 9.5% against the dollar this year as the wide interest rate difference between the U.S. and Japan weigh, creating a lucrative trading opportunity, in which traders borrow the yen at low rates to invest in dollar-priced assets for a higher return, known as carry trade.

Analysts, however, said last week’s suspected moves by Tokyo might lead to traders unwinding some of their positions.

“It feels like the tide is shifting a little here and it’s generating some discomfort for yen funded carry traders,” said James Athey fixed income portfolio manager at Marlborough Investment Management.

In commodities, gold was 0.5% higher at $2,469 per ounce just below the record high of $2,483.60 it touched on Wednesday.

Oil prices were on the rise again, with Brent futures 0.4% higher at $85.45 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained 0.7% to $83.43.

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Editing by Arun Koyyur