The world is a more dangerous place now. Britain needs Europe

Damn the despair. We have to get used to it, fast. And then we have to respond.

First, a brief assessment of the implications. Trump’s dislike of Nato, unsupportive stance on Ukraine and weak opposition to Russian aggression, will surely embolden Vladimir Putin. Trump says he will end the Ukraine war, but no one thinks he will favour Kiev – we can only guess at the level of despondency there.

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The President-elect continues to undermine Nato, casually inviting Russia to attack any Nato state that spends less than two per cent of GDP on security, saying the US wouldn’t intervene. It isn’t easily dismissed as campaign rhetoric; his attacks on Nato have been consistent for years. He is weakening it as a defensive pact. The Baltic States must be nervous.

For American democracy, Donald Trump is dangerous, a practised liar and populist with authoritarian instincts. His win will embolden similar leaders across Europe.

Meanwhile, his threat to introduce tariffs on all imports of 10-20 per cent would hit European economies hard and could result in a damaging international trade war. The National Institute of Economic and Social Research, a think tank, predicts that Trump’s tariffs would halve the growth rate of Britain’s economy and John Swinney is already warning they would hit the Scotch whisky industry. Even if Trump’s simplistic approach weren’t pursued to the letter (it would increase prices in the US) we can expect a damaging, protectionist stance.

Efforts to tackle climate change, now a desperately urgent threat, have been dealt a vicious blow by the re-election of a president who calls climate change a “hoax” and wants to “drill, baby, drill”. He would likely pull the US out of the Paris Agreement.

It is probably this that will have the most dire long-term consequences for the largest number of people.

And the transatlantic “special relationship”? It’s starting to sound like a quaint historical term already. Trump’s attack on the “far left Labour party” for encouraging people to campaign for Harris tells us the golfing billionaire doesn’t give a rat’s ass about Britain.

Make no mistake: Britain had already damaged the special relationship with Brexit – Biden did not prioritise a UK trade deal either. Attitudes are changing. If we continue to delude ourselves that the US is our steadfast bestie, we will be less safe.

Keir Starmer’s government must, of course, have a working relationship with Trump’s White House. Britain must find common ground if it can. Starmer and David Lammy, the Foreign Secretary, have been assiduously laying the groundwork for this.

But a breach has occurred. It looks as though our values are diverging. We need other friends and allies – not easy when the last government deliberately blew up our relationship with Europe. Starmer must redouble efforts to shore up those damaged relationships, not in opposition to the US but alongside it, in recognition of this new reality.

There’s no point labouring the point of how all this underscores the sheer lunacy of Brexit. That way lies bitterness and recrimination, and we’ve no time for that. But it’s clear enough that staying in the EU, our largest export market, would have greatly helped buffer the UK economy from the trade instability that is to come, helped bolster democracy in Europe where the far right is on the march and allowed for a more coherent European response to Russia’s threat.

Talk of rejoining the EU would only inflame the populist right, but there is an urgent need for the Labour Government to move closer to the bloc – with the aim of rejoining the customs union.

That idea may not have traction now, but if US tariffs hammer the economy, it would start looking a great deal more attractive.

Entering a customs union was not an option that MPs could agree to back in 2017, as Remainers felt it didn’t go far enough while Leavers made out it would prevent Britain making glorious bilateral trade deals, including with the United States.

That argument, however, was hideously misleading and is now in tatters. The last transparent wisps of those illusory Brexit benefits have long since evaporated. Eight years after the Brexit vote, there is no prospect of any trade deal with the US and the deals the UK has made, such as that with Australia, are worth so little you need a magnifying glass to see the numbers.

A customs union with Europe, then, should be in Labour’s sights. Governments have to re-evalaute previous commitments in the light of changed circumstances, and this is one hell of a changed circumstance.

But that is not all. Those who believe in liberal values – respect for democratic institutions and the rule of law, belief in equality and individual liberty, protecting minorities and evidence-based debate – must get used to working together. Their squabbling only delights the forces of authoritarianism.

Keir Starmer and John Swinney should be natural allies in the struggle against the forces of authoritarianism (Image: PA)

That applies to the SNP and Labour. Constitutional differences aside, John Swinney and Keir Starmer are natural allies in this much bigger struggle.

Thank goodness Scottish independence is no longer a realistic near-term project. I say that not to disrespect those who sincerely believe in it, but because with independence off the table for the foreseeable, it gives these two centre-left parties space to work together in an unprecedented way to make our shared democracy stronger, in defence of shared values. The break-up of the UK would be seen in Moscow as a blow to the power of one of Russia’s greatest foes, as indeed it would be. Now is not the time.

Something bigger is at stake here. Those who believe in democratic values in Britain and all its constituent parts, must link arms and brace themselves for what is to come.

Rebecca McQuillan is a freelance journalist specialising in politics and Scottish affairs. She can be found on X at @BecMcQ