Victory in Austria is another step in far right’s march across Europe

It had been expected for months – the party had been leading the polls since 2022. Nor was it exactly a crushing victory: far from an absolute majority, and just two points more than its previous highest score. It may not even end up in government.

But the first place finish in Austria’s parliamentary elections by the far-right, anti-immigration, Russia-friendly Eurosceptic Freedom party (FPÖ) nonetheless marks another significant step in the radical right’s onward march across Europe.

The FPÖ, founded by former Nazis, has been in power before, as the junior partner in short-lived coalition governments with the centre-right Austrian People’s party (ÖVP) in 2000 and 2017, but it has never before finished first in a national election.

Its performance on Sunday, with a score of 29%, represents a remarkable comeback after it looked close to collapse barely five years ago, when the cash-for-influence Ibiza scandal forced its then leader to resign and brought down the government.

It rounds off 12 months of elections in which illiberal parties have won the most seats in parliaments across Europe. This time last year, populist, autocratic, Brussels-baiting Robert Fico topped the ballot in Slovakia and formed a government soon after.

Less than two months later, the Freedom party (PVV) of the anti-Islam firebrand Geert Wilders finished first in Dutch elections, eventually assembling a cabinet that has promised the country’s toughest-ever policies on immigration and law and order.

In May, Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally (RN) achieved its best ever result in European parliament elections in France, inflicting a humiliating defeat on President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist forces and prompting him to dissolve parliament.

In the ensuing vote, the RN went on to record its highest ever score in the first round. In the second it took an even higher share of the vote and, despite unprecedented tactical voting against it, wound up as the largest single party in the assembly.

This month in Germany, Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) secured a historic victory in regional elections in Thuringia, the first time the far-right party had topped a state ballot, and finished a close second in two more, Saxony and Brandenburg.

Looking ahead, the nation-first, populist ANO party of the former prime minister Andrej Babiš could sweep parliamentary elections due in the Czech Republic by October after topping the EU ballot and, this month, dominating regional and senate votes.

Next September, the AfD – now polling ahead of all three parties in Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s fractured and ailing coalition, and trailing only the opposition centre-right Christian Democrats – will have high hopes for federal elections due in Germany.

And if, as seems distinctly possible, the right-leaning government cobbled together in France this month fails to survive for long, fresh elections could in principle be held anytime after next July – and a bet against the RN finishing first would be a brave one.

The FPÖ is not certain to be part of Austria’s next government. As kingmaker, the ÖVP may seek an alliance with the third-placed, centre-left SPÖ and the liberals. It has repeatedly said it will not rule with the FPÖ’s inflammatory leader, Herbert Kickl.

But if Kickl can be persuaded to abandon his prime ministerial ambitions for a less controversial FPÖ figure, and the ÖVP can overcome its concerns about a third – likely tempestuous – alliance with the far-right party, an FPÖ-ÖVP coalition is possible.

For the EU, that holds the unappetising prospect of Austria becoming part of a putative Moscow-friendly, anti-Brussels, autocratic bloc that, by this time next year, could include Viktor Orbán’s Hungary, Fico’s Slovakia and Babiš’s Czech Republic.

That could have significant consequences, for example for EU policies towards – and support for – Ukraine. Far-right parties already in government or pushing at the gates are already resulting in dramatically tougher policies on immigration across the bloc.

Parties classed as far right or national conservative are in ruling coalitions in seven EU states: Croatia, the Czech Republic, Finland, Hungary, Italy, the Netherlands and Slovakia. In Sweden, a far-right party is propping up a minority government.

In France, Le Pen’s RN holds the fate of the new government in its hands, its survival dependent on whether and when her far-right party decides to back any future vote of no confidence tabled by the leftwing New Popular Front (NPF) bloc.

Alarmingly, the FPÖ’s success on Sunday suggests that – similarly to the AfD and Wilders’ PVV, but unlike the RN and Brothers of Italy – Europe’s far-right parties may now no longer feel a pressing need to “sanitise” their image.

Austria’s far-right party is regularly accused of using antisemitic and fascist tropes, which it denies. Kickl, who has spread Covid and climate conspiracy theories, says he wants to be Volkskanzler, or “people’s chancellor” – a term used by Adolf Hitler.

Almost 25 years ago, when the FPÖ under its then leader, Jörg Haider, won just under 27% of the vote and entered government, it caused such a profound shock around the EU that diplomatic visits were cancelled and punitive measures imposed.

Today’s Europe is very different.